PARIS, October 8, 2025: Global renewable energy capacity is on track to more than double by 2030, led by a surge in solar photovoltaic (PV) installations, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2025 report released Tuesday. The report outlines a projected increase of 4,600 gigawatts (GW) in global renewable capacity over the next five years, equivalent to the current total power capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan combined.
Solar PV is expected to account for approximately 80 percent of the additional capacity, supported by declining technology costs and faster permitting in key markets. The remaining growth will come from wind, hydroelectric, bioenergy, and geothermal sources. The IEA noted that geothermal capacity is set to reach historic highs in the United States, Japan, Indonesia, and several emerging economies. Pumped-storage hydropower is also experiencing renewed momentum, with expected growth nearly 80 percent higher than the previous five-year period due to increasing interest in grid flexibility solutions.
Despite strong overall growth, the IEA revised its global forecast slightly downward from last year, reducing total projected additions by 248 GW. The revision was driven primarily by policy and regulatory adjustments in the United States and China. In the United States, early phase-outs of federal tax credits, new import restrictions, and delays in project approvals have lowered expectations for renewable growth by nearly half compared with the previous forecast. In China, the shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions has altered the economics of new projects and contributed to a moderated growth outlook.
Meanwhile, other regions have seen improved projections. India is set to become the second-largest market for renewable energy growth, following China. The report highlights India’s progress in rooftop solar deployment, accelerated permitting for hydropower, and increased auction volumes. Forecasts were also raised for Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with Saudi Arabia among the countries driving solar expansion through utility-scale projects.
Emerging markets show upward trend in renewables
Offshore wind capacity, in contrast, is facing a slower pace of growth. The IEA downgraded its outlook for the segment by around 25 percent compared to last year, citing regulatory adjustments, supply chain issues, and rising capital costs. However, land-based wind projects in China, Europe, and India continue to move forward, and wind power remains a key contributor to overall capacity gains. The report also underscores the growing strain on electricity grids due to the rapid increase in variable renewable sources.
Currently, 1,700 GW of renewable projects are awaiting grid connection globally. Several markets are already experiencing curtailment and negative electricity pricing events, which the IEA identifies as indicators of the urgent need for infrastructure investment in grid expansion, energy storage, and flexible generation. In terms of generation, renewables overtook coal as the world’s largest source of electricity in the first half of 2025. Renewable sources, led by solar and wind, generated 5,072 terawatt-hours (TWh), exceeding coal’s 4,896 TWh for the same period.
India solidifies position as global renewables leader
This marks the first time renewables have surpassed coal on a global scale in power output. The report also notes ongoing concerns about supply chain concentration, particularly in solar PV and rare earth elements used in wind turbines. Over 90 percent of production in key segments remains concentrated in China, raising supply security issues even as investments are made in alternative supply sources.
The share of renewables in global heating and transport is expected to rise slightly. In transport, renewable energy’s share is projected to increase from 4 percent today to 6 percent by 2030, driven largely by electric vehicle growth in China and Europe and biofuel use in markets including Brazil, Indonesia, and India. In heating, renewables’ share is forecast to grow from 14 percent to 18 percent. – By Content Syndication Services.